Reuters
Wall Street has a recession obsession. What does the data say?
A favorite Wall Street harbinger of business-cycle downturns sent up a warning flare that a recession may be on the horizon on Tuesday, just hours after the latest data on the U.S. economy showed business demand for workers remained strong and consumers were still confident despite some worries about inflation. It was a disjointed set of events – strong economic fundamentals against signs of anxiety in the bond market – that showed just how tight a path the Federal Reserve will need to walk as it tries to tame inflation with a steady series of interest rate increases. For traders who briefly pushed rates on the 2-year Treasury note above that of the 10-year Treasury note, the biggest risk to the economy may now be a central bank that finds inflation has slipped its grasp and is forced to act more aggressively than expected, killing the current economic expansion in the process.
